The World Bank Group has forecast that global commodity prices will rise by 23 per cent in 2026 as conflict, shipping disruptions and weather risks put pressure on energy, food and other essential inputs.
The forecast includes a projected 32 per cent increase in energy prices. Brent crude is expected to average about $91 per barrel this year, compared with $69 in 2025. Food commodity prices are projected to rise by around 10 per cent in 2026 and another 7 per cent in 2027.
The forecast is not a prediction that every Nigerian food item will rise by those percentages. Domestic harvests, transport costs, exchange rates, production and distribution will also determine local prices.
But the risks are significant for Nigeria. Higher energy costs can increase transport and production expenses. More expensive fertiliser can raise farmers’ costs, while disrupted grain shipments and adverse weather can threaten food supplies.
Higher crude prices could improve Nigeria’s export earnings if production and revenue collection respond. But additional oil revenue does not automatically translate into cheaper food, better services or relief for households.
The Federal Government should explain how it will manage the potential gains and risks. What measures will help farmers access inputs? How will food supply chains be protected? Will additional oil revenue be transparently reported and directed towards clearly identified priorities?
The government should also publish regular information on food availability, agricultural input costs and the effect of global prices on domestic inflation. Any support for vulnerable households should have clear eligibility rules and verifiable results.
The World Bank warns that a further escalation of conflict, disruptions to Russian oil infrastructure, Black Sea grain problems and a strong El Niño could make conditions worse than its baseline forecast.
Nigeria cannot control these global shocks. It can, however, improve preparedness, strengthen domestic food production, manage public revenue transparently and avoid policies that deepen pressure on households.
The forecast should be treated as a warning to prepare, not an excuse to explain away future hardship after it arrives.
We don’t just report the news. We analyse what it means.
By Viewers Corner News.